State of Environment - megatrends

Understanding and analyzing megatrends is important to maintain the effectiveness and relevance of decision-making processes in a rapidly changing world. The environmental overview outlines five categories of global megatrends:

• Climate change
• Resource scarcity
• Technological innovation
• Demographics
• Urbanization

• According to Copernicus data, the global average temperature has increased by 1.3 °C compared to the pre-industrial period (1850–1900).
• Human-induced climate change continues and would not stop even if greenhouse gas emissions were to cease completely. Economic and population growth increase emissions, determining the pace of global warming.
• Without significant changes in climate policy, the global average temperature is projected to increase by approximately 3.5 °C by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels, according to the IPCC. Even under the most optimistic scenario, only a reduction in the rate of climate change and mitigation of its impacts is possible.
• The negative impacts of human-induced climate change are already visible. These include an increase in extreme weather events (such as heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall), as well as slower, systemic changes like desertification, loss of biodiversity, and the degradation of ecosystems.
• Climate change causes serious, widespread, and potentially irreversible changes to people, assets, the economy, and ecosystems worldwide. If the goals of the Paris Agreement are not met, the global economy could lose an estimated 10% of its value by the middle of the century.
• A significant global temperature increase will render many densely populated areas uninhabitable or unsuitable for food production by the end of the century, leading to growing challenges in food and water security.
• In addition to being a major environmental risk, climate change is increasingly seen as a security issue. It can amplify existing tensions and instability—through forced migration, resource scarcity, or conflict—especially when combined with demographic, political, and economic trends.

Read more about weather and climate topics here.

• Humanity has reached a point where existing resources are no longer sufficient to meet growing demand.
• Globally, material use has increased from 27 billion tonnes in 1970 to 89 billion tonnes by 2017. According to OECD estimates, without significant intervention, material use will rise to 167 billion tonnes by 2060, driven primarily by a tripling of global GDP and the industrialization of developing countries.
• The largest share of global material use consists of non-metallic minerals (such as sand, gravel, and limestone), but the environmental impact per unit of mass is greater for metals – especially nickel, copper, and, in absolute terms, iron.
• The scarcity of natural resources is also one of the biggest global risks of the next decade. According to the World Bank, resource scarcity is among the ten most significant risks for the coming ten years.
• The European Union's resource use is significantly higher than in middle- and low-income countries and exceeds the planet’s “safe operating limits.” If global consumption were at the same level as in the EU, Earth's ecosystems would not be able to sustain these needs. According to Eurostat, per capita resource use is highest in Finland, Romania, Luxembourg, and Estonia.
• The European Union's dependence on critical raw materials from outside its borders has increased. In 2011, 14 materials were classified as critical for the EU; by 2023, this number had grown to 34. It is also estimated that around 90% of these critical materials for the EU originate from China.
• The growth of resource use can be slowed down by the increasing share of the service sector in the economy and the adoption of secondary raw materials. The environmental impact of secondary materials is estimated to be about ten times lower per kilogram compared to primary ones, which is why policies that promote the circular economy can play an important role here.

• Rapid technological development is one of the most visible and tangible megatrends in everyday life and also a key enabler of sustainability. It has brought significant opportunities to improve environmental conditions but also introduced new environmental challenges and the potential for unexpected and hard-to-predict consequences.
• Technological progress can increase the burden on the environment. For example, the adoption of fossil fuels enabled rapid economic growth and improved living standards but has also contributed to climate change, deteriorating air quality, and depletion of natural resources. Growing data volumes, widespread application of artificial intelligence, and activities such as cryptocurrency mining significantly increase energy consumption. The high energy use of data centers and the short life cycle of electronic devices lead to growing electricity demand and increasing volumes of electronic waste.
• The energy sector has been shaped by the rapid development of new technologies, including renewable energy (such as solar, wind, and biomass), energy storage (such as batteries and pumped hydro), electric transport, and energy efficiency solutions (such as digitalization and demand-based management).
• Technological innovation supports solutions to environmental problems, food and water scarcity, and social and health-related challenges. For example, analytics based on artificial intelligence or remote sensing help optimize energy and resource use, streamline logistics and supply chains, monitor environmental conditions, and manage complex systems in real time. At the same time, new technologies raise concerns about data protection, transparency, and algorithmic bias.
• Technological innovation is a key amplifier of sustainability, but realizing its potential and avoiding negative impacts requires deliberate direction, oversight, and effective international cooperation. Investments in research and development and knowledge transfer are essential for decoupling economic growth and human development from the use of natural resources.

• The world population surpassed 8 billion at the end of 2022 and is expected to grow to nearly 10 billion by the middle of the century, stabilizing by the end of the century.
• A large share of this growth will occur in low-income countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the population may double by 2050. These regions are often the most vulnerable to both climate change and resource depletion. Although their per capita carbon footprint is low, rapid population growth leads to a greater cumulative environmental burden, especially in terms of water, energy, and land resource use. Additionally, rapid and unplanned urbanization may occur in these fast-growing areas, outpacing the capacity of governance systems and infrastructure.
• Immigration is the main growth driver in 52 countries, including the United States, Canada, and Australia. Due to the effects of climate change—such as increasing natural disasters and water scarcity—migration patterns may become more intense in the future. This could place additional pressure on the natural environment of destination countries.
• Globally, the population is aging. In 1950, those over 65 made up only 5% of the population; by 2100, their share may rise to a quarter. A turning point came in 2018, when the number of people over 65 exceeded those under 5 for the first time. Europe, Japan, and the United States are aging the fastest. This may shift consumption patterns and affect urban planning and living environment needs.

Read more on the United Nations (UN) website and explore the statistics here.

• Emerging megacities represent the world's greatest opportunity to create climate-friendly and resource-efficient urban spaces. However, rapid urban growth is primarily occurring in Africa and Asia—regions where institutional and financial capacities to invest in environmental protection, restoration, or climate adaptation are often limited.
• Since 2007, the majority of the world’s population has lived in cities, and according to the UN, this share may increase to 70% by the middle of the century. Urbanization is a relatively recent phenomenon in human history, which gained momentum in the early 20th century in Europe and North America and has since spread globally.
• Although cities cover only about 2% of the Earth’s land area, they account for an estimated 60% of global energy consumption, 70% of greenhouse gas emissions, and 70% of global waste generation. At the same time, cities offer significant opportunities for resource savings—for example, effective urban planning can lead to improved energy efficiency, increased use of public transport, and lower per capita carbon footprints.
• Today, urbanization is especially rapid in developing countries, where the concentration of industry and services in cities has turned them into engines of economic growth. Approximately 90% of megacities (with populations over 10 million) are located in low-income countries.
• Cities are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Urban heat islands, air pollution, and limited green spaces amplify these risks. The capacity of urban ecosystems to provide ecosystem services—such as regulating temperature or filtering air pollution—is often constrained. Poorly planned urbanization can lead to environmental degradation both within cities and in surrounding rural areas.

Read more in the European Commission overview and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report. Explore urbanization statistics by country here.